Why Interest Rates Are Rising, and What It Means for You
Rates are up, and plenty of people are calling the market doomed. History and the data suggest otherwise. Here’s the breakdown of why rates are rising right now.
For the last two or three weeks, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have marched steadily higher, and the headlines have grown louder with them. After a year spent lodged in the high fives to high sixes, rates have now topped 7% for the first time in more than two years, settling into the mid-7s.
Predictably, some are declaring the real estate market doomed, insisting that prices must fall because rates are high. Before anyone accepts that narrative, it is worth understanding what is actually driving these numbers, and why the panic is misplaced.
History already punctured the doom story. Two and a half years ago, rates climbed well into the eights. I remember putting properties under contract with buyers locking in near 8.6%, and even that was not enough to push prices down substantially. High rates alone, it turns out, do not reliably collapse a market. So the first thing I would urge anyone to do is resist the hype.
The real driver is the bond market. Rates are climbing because investors are demanding higher yields on their money. The 10-year Treasury has climbed to around 5%, its highest level in more than two decades, and since 30-year fixed mortgages typically run two to three percent above that benchmark, today’s mortgage rates follow naturally.
The deeper force underneath is risk. When an investor buys a Treasury, they are accepting a guaranteed rate of return, and when the world feels uncertain, they demand more to lend their money, whether to the Federal Reserve or the government. That is simply how rates are priced: by risk.
"Today’s rate is a snapshot, not a sentence, so don’t treat it as permanent."
Much of that risk is geopolitical, and geopolitical pressure doesn’t last forever. The conflict involving Iran will, at some point, either subside or give way to some form of deal. When it does, oil and diesel prices should begin to ease, and as that risk drains out of the market, Treasury yields should follow them down. It is worth remembering, too, that even at these levels the United States still carries relatively low rates compared to much of the rest of the world.
Today’s rate is a snapshot, not a sentence. If you lock in and buy a home at today’s rate, it is highly unlikely that figure will prove to be the lowest rate available over the next five or six years. I would never advise buying a home on the bet that rates fall next year; that is a poor way to make the decision. What I would say is that if you lock a rate now, there is a strong probability you will be able to refinance within the next five years.
My own expectation is that rates settle near 8% through the end of this year, and then, as the new year arrives and if some geopolitical stability returns, drift back toward where they began the year, somewhere between 5 and 6%.
What this means for you right now. If you have been considering buying, this has genuinely been a strong window. There are good deals to be found, because sellers who need to sell are meeting a market with less competition, and that creates real room to negotiate. If you are a seller, the message is just as clear: prepare your home now and make it the best house on the block, because the best-presented homes are still drawing strong offers even in this environment.
If you would like to talk through what today’s rates mean for your specific situation, I would be glad to help. Call me at
(916) 862-5463, email me at
Steve@homesbyelevate.com, or visit
homesbyelevate.com.
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