What is prop 37 and will it lower housing prices in Sacramento?
Steve LaMothe breaks down the good, bad & ugly of prop 37.
Prop 37 at a 30,000-Foot Level
The big promise of Prop 37 is that it would unlock $25 billion in housing loans for first-time homebuyers, with the goal of getting more people into homes. Those loans would go through CalHFA, the state's housing finance agency.
I'm a huge proponent of homeownership, especially for first-time buyers. I've helped literally hundreds of people use CalHFA down payment programs to buy their first home. It puts them on the property ladder, and for a lot of them it's been life-changing. I haven't had a bad experience with these kinds of programs.
How the Down Payment Assistance Works
Here's the basic idea. If you're a first-time homebuyer and you meet certain criteria (there are income limits, but they tend to be pretty high; in Sacramento you could probably earn up to around $200,000 and still qualify):
- You bring in 3% of the purchase price.
- The state brings in the other 17%, getting you to a full 20% down payment.
- With 20% down, you can use a conventional loan and skip mortgage insurance.
A lot of people miss out on buying because they just can't save 20%. You can still buy with 3% down if you can afford the monthly payment, but coming in with an extra 17% down brings that payment down a lot. My rough estimate is somewhere around 35%.
The "Silent Second" Is the Best Part
How that money gets paid back is pretty great for buyers. The 17% works like a silent second loan. You don't make monthly payments on it. It just builds interest quietly in the background until you sell or refinance. So if you sell or refinance, say, five years later, you pay back the loan plus interest at that point.
Buying as if you had 20% down without a second monthly payment is a very nice setup. For responsible buyers who can afford a home, it's a great loan product for getting on the property ladder.
In the past, the program has been limited by funding. Each year a certain amount gets set aside, so only so many people can use it.
The Downsides: Demand Isn't the Problem, Supply Is
The number one housing challenge nationwide, and especially in California, isn't that buyers can't get money to buy. It's prices. Prices have climbed a lot over the last six years for two reasons:
- Huge buyer demand fueled by low interest rates, which drove competition and pushed prices up.
- Not enough homes. We're two or three million homes behind where we should be on new construction. We simply aren't building enough to keep up with buyer demand.
California has led the way on this problem because of tight restrictions on where and how you can build, heavy regulations around getting a project permitted, and the sheer cost of building. I'd estimate it's around $200,000 just to buy a lot, get approvals, pay school fees, and get utilities set up, and that's before the foundation goes in. If you're $200,000 to $300,000 in before you even start building, you can see why so many new homes in Sacramento are priced at $600,000 to $700,000 and up.
So opening the spigot on a bunch of money doesn't solve the core issue. I think it could make it worse. We already have plenty of buyers who want homes, even when it's expensive and hard to buy. Demand isn't the issue. Supply is.
The New-Construction-Only Catch
The other big drawback: this money can only be used to buy new construction homes.
There just aren't many new construction communities aimed at first-time buyers. I think it would take a long time for builders to start building smaller homes at the low end of the market, and with land, development, and fees costing what they do, I don't see how the math works.
What I'd Rather See
If it were up to me, I'd put that $25 billion toward the actual problem: buying up land dedicated to first-time-buyer homes and making it super easy to build on it. I think that would solve the problem much better.
If It Passes, Here's My Advice
If Prop 37 does pass, I'd absolutely encourage buyers to look at using it and get on the property ladder. Your financial picture totally changes when you buy a home. The people I helped buy two, five, seven, or eight years ago are better off financially today than people who've been renting that whole time.
Owning is expensive, and right now it's definitely more expensive than renting. But every payment you make is like savings. You're paying yourself back, and over time that asset tends to grow in value.
Have Questions About Prop 37 or Buying Your First Home?
This is a complex topic, and I wanted to explain it fully instead of putting out a short, catchy take. If you want to talk through how it could affect your plans, I'm happy to help.
Call 916-436-SELL or visit homesbyelevate.com.
Steve LaMothe, Elevate Realty Group
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