The market is Slowing.... From appraiser Ryan Lundquist

August 13, 2021

Is the Sacramento market "slowing down"..... Yes is the answer, but its not bad!


This is a "re-share" from a friend. Ryan Lundquist

NOT DULL: The market is slowing, but it’s not dull. It is still really competitive.

DOOM AND GLOOM: The doom and gloom crowd loves to say the market is starting to crash because of the slowness we’re seeing, but stats right now don’t support a crash and burn narrative. In my mind it’s premature to say the market has shifted directions. Of course if the stats go that way I’ll change my narrative. For now it’s most reasonable to say we are seeing what looks to be a normal seasonal slowing. Stay tuned.

Glowing & slowing market update:

I’m doing a big market update for SAFE Credit Union next week. There is no cost. It’s totally free, but you have to register. It’ll be at 9am on Zoom on Wednesday August 18, 2021. It’ll be about an hour and packed with lots of stats and perspective. REGISTER HERE.

10 WAYS THE MARKET IS SLOWING

1) Prices are starting to dip: Last month we finally saw most price metrics take a dip from the previous month. The median price usually peaks around July, so this is what we would expect to see in a normal year.


2) We’re seeing fewer sales happen: Around this time of year we start to see sales volume slump. Here is one of my favorite images to help explain what I mean. The green line represents average monthly sales volume and we typically see the number of sales increase from January to June before dipping for the rest of the year. This is normal. The black line represents 2020 and it was such a freakishly abnormal year. Check out the red line though (2021). Volume peaked in June and it started to soften in July, which puts us right on track with normal historical averages. By the way, we had a thirteen month streak where monthly volume was up over the previous year, but that streak has been snapped. Last year we saw highly abnormal demand in July onward, which is why this year volume is actually down (even though it was a normal month in terms of numbers).


3) It’s taking longer to sell: Last month it took an extra day to sell in Sacramento County and two extra days in the region. Since August pendings in the region have taken sixteen days to get into contract, which is up two days from July sales. This is still lightning fast, but it’s clearly slower than it was a few months ago.


4) More homes are selling below the list price: There are slightly more homes selling at or below the list price right now. For two months in a row we’ve seen this metric increase and it’s a sign of a market that is slowing. Keep in mind in a normal market we should be seeing closer to half of all homes sell at or below the list price, so this market is still on steroids.


5) There are fewer offers above the list price: Here’s a visual to show what buyers are paying compared to the asking price. Most categories slowed slightly last month, but not every category. The most aggressive range in the market is 1-5%. Last month properties on average sold 3.7% above the original list price, which is still one of the highest percentages ever for the region, but it’s down 4.1% from the previous month. Keep in mind stats show we do not have an overpriced market, but sellers would be wise to note the clear change in temperature lately and price according to similar properties that are getting into contract instead of sensational headlines from a few months ago.


6) Housing supply has increased slightly: We are seeing an uptick in monthly housing supply. We are still at an absurdly low level with basically less than a one-month supply of homes for sale in most surrounding counties. In the region we have 0.92 months of supply, which means we basically have a month worth of listings before they run out. This number should be easily twice this amount.



7) More listings are hitting the market: We are definitely seeing more listings hit the market, but we are nowhere close to normal levels yet. About six months ago we had 1,200 or so listings on any given day and now we have over 2,000 listings. Granted, we should have about twice as many listings, but this is a step in the right direction. We typically start to see fewer new listings hit the market around this time of year, but one thing to watch is whether sellers pull back from listing their homes in light of the Delta variant. To be determined.


8) Smaller-sized homes are selling: If you didn’t know, when the spring market fades we typically start to see smaller homes sell, and that is exactly what has been happening for two months. The dark blue line represents the average home size in Sacramento and it goes up and down like clockwork each year. Do you see how size typically hits a seasonal peak during May or June (besides last year)? Anyway, the average size slumped in July quite a bit. This is actually something to watch because it can affect price stats. What I mean is whenever we interpret price stats we have to be in tune with what is actually selling. 


9) Fewer multiple offers: For three months in a row we’ve seen fewer multiple offers in the Sacramento region. Keep in mind the percentage of offers is still about as high as it’s ever been.


10) Word on the street: I’m hearing from lots of real estate agents, loan officers, and appraisers that they’ve seen a slightly slower vibe. I haven’t heard many people call this market dull, but there is lots of chatter about slowing. At the same time I’m hearing things like, “My listing had 11 offers” or “We got outbid again,” which speaks to how competitive it is right now. Buyers, be hopeful that we’re seeing some seasonal slowing, but be careful not to think you’re poised for a big price discount. We’re just not in that sort of market.

Now more stats if that’s your thing.

——————– BIG MARKET UPDATE ——————–

JUNE TO JULY:

This is a helpful view to understand the market has been slowing. Take a look at how most metrics softened from June to July.




LAST YEAR VS THIS YEAR:

Last year the market was dull at the beginning of the pandemic, so this year versus last year gets a little weird for a comparison. My advice? Take these percentages with a grain of salt because they’re inflated due to sagging numbers last year. And remember these percentages DO NOT actually mean every house is worth that much more either.






MORE PRICE VISUALS:

A few more visuals to show the insanity of price growth and softening lately. Look how far disconnected 2021 prices are from previous years.


Anyway, this is starting to get way too long.

MARKET STATS: I’ll have lots of market stats out this week on my social channels, so watch TwitterInstagramLinkedIn, and Facebook.

Thanks for being here.

SHARING POLICY: I welcome you to share some of these images on your social channels or in a newsletter. In case it helps, here are 6 ways to share my content (not copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: What are you seeing out there in the market? What are you hearing buyers and sellers say? I’d love to hear your take.


Blog

By Steve LaMothe August 25, 2026
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By Steve LaMothe June 18, 2026
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When a buyer has to take $40,000 of their own cash and put it toward repairs instead of their down payment, their monthly payment goes up by $700 to $1,000. That's not a small number. That's the difference between a buyer who can afford your home and one who walks away. There are really two ways sellers lose when they skip the renovation. Buyers aren't going to offer you what you think the house is worth. They just can't afford to. Making repairs with their own cash is expensive and directly affects what they can afford for the home. The money for repairs comes right out of the money they have available for the purchase. You lose control of the cost. If you don't handle the repairs upfront, you're leaving yourself open to whatever the buyer thinks the costs are. And here's the reality. If I'm representing a buyer and we're looking at a house that needs a lot of work, we're always going to ask for more money than we think the repairs will cost, just in case there are things we don't know about yet. That's standard. So, as the seller, you end up paying inflated prices through buyer credits that you could have controlled for less by doing the work yourself upfront. How our concierge program changes the math. This is exactly why we built our concierge program. With over 900 sales and 16 years of vetting contractors, I've built a network of vendors who offer wholesale pricing because we send them consistent volume. We've tracked results across all those projects, and our sellers have received over $7 million in increased equity by making the repairs before listing. That's not an overpromise. That's data from 900 transactions. " If you don't control the cost of repairs upfront, the buyer will, and they always ask for more. " And here's how it actually works. When you work with us, you don't have to interview half a dozen painting companies and hope they show up. I've already done that over a 16-year career. We constantly cut vendors who don't answer the phone, don't offer good pricing, or don't do quality work. We shop out our estimates to hold people accountable. We introduce you to multiple vendors so nobody gets comfortable. And because we're their biggest source of business, when something goes wrong, and something always does, I make one call and they're there in the morning. That's the kind of accountability a regular homeowner just doesn't have. We're also renegotiating with vendors right now because the post-COVID price inflation is easing. Contractors want to be busy. They're not as booked as they were two years ago. So we're getting better deals, and those savings go straight to you. Why most sellers don't do it and why that's a mistake. For most people, the reason comes down to one of two things. Either they don't want to deal with the hassle of finding and managing contractors, or they think they can't afford to make the repairs. The hassle part is what we solve. Estimates within two days. Work starts within two to three days after you approve a vendor. My commitment is that we get this done twice as fast as you could on your own. We're not saying you can't do it yourself. You absolutely can. But you'll usually pay more, and it'll take a lot longer. When you run the numbers, using our program is almost free because the extra equity you gain far outweighs the cost of the repairs. The risk of doing nothing. About 30% of homes in today's market are not selling. If you throw your house on the market in poor condition and it's not priced right, there's a real chance it just sits. Your goals aren't achieved. You've gotten the dog and the kids out of the house for three months of showings, and you have nothing to show for it. That's not a risk worth taking when the solution is right in front of you. If you're thinking about selling and you want to know which repairs would actually move the needle on your home's value, give me a call at (916) 862-5463 , email me at Steve@homesbyelevate.com , or visit homesbyelevate.com . We'll walk through what makes sense for your home and get you a plan that puts the most money in your pocket. 
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